In my opinion there's 3 things that are official.
Lebron will not play for the Knicks
Lebron will not play for the Nets
Lebron, Wade, Bosh will not all end up on the same team.
What do I think happens? Lebron stays in Cleveland! Cleveland will go out of their way to make a trade for Chris Paul, as Lebron needs an Elite PG to win a championship. Maybe Jamison/West for Paul.... This trade, would still leave cap money to acquire either Chris Bosh, or Carlos Boozer. On a side note I'm gonna throw and odd ball out there. What if Cleveland traded for Paul, re-signed James, picked up Bosh, told A.Iverson if he dropped the attitude, and continued to play team basketball he'd have a contract. Just picture this line up. Championship within two years...
PG: Chris Paul/ Williams
SG: Allen Iverson/ Parker
SF: Lebron James/ Moon
PF: Chris Bosh/ Powe
C: Anderson Varejao/ Shaq