OT economy check

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:tired: not any diFFerent fRom wHen the inTernet bubbLe buRst... buY buY buy wHile stoCks are doWn

 

[Vision06]

jgiordano,

That was one of the best and truthful posts I've read in a long time. You forgot to mention getting credit in 30 seconds online.

I drive 112 miles to and from work every day and the gas prices don't bother me. I drive a car that I want to drive. Sure I could have bought a car that was better on gas miles but I'm a spoiled american living the american dream.
As for work I drive tractor trailers for a living with a reefer unit and still don't see a problem with the gas prices.
Alot of americans live from paycheck to paycheck to have all the goodies, so once gas prices go up they go above their income and need something to blame their hardships on.

 

[inline6]

:tired: not any diFFerent fRom wHen the inTernet bubbLe buRst... buY buY buy wHile stoCks are doWn

Seems somehow different this time around.
Not sure what but seems like we're in for a rougher time this time around.

 

[fritz]

The days of MTV cribs and designer everything are gone. There's a great car commercial, Nissan maybe. A woman is carrying boxes and bags, obviously shopping at high end retailers. She is wearing obviously designer dubs from head to toe. As she crosses the street she is almost hit by the subject of the commercial, the announcer states: "Spending money like it's going out of style, is out of style."

The Real Estate bubble has popped. There are only 5 or 6 lenders that will still lend money and you better have perfect credit and 20% (cash) to put down plus cash on hand to cover the bills for a year or so should you become disabled or unemployed. In case you're not keeping score that knocks out most people looking for a home or investment for that matter.

Banks had been getting high off closing costs and reselling the loans that they were giving.

 

[lfsmarineguy]

New York is but a very small segment of this country's population. Most of this country is rural with the national avg. income being 35k a year. New York and the rest of population hubs are the exceptions, not the rule. This is the same thinking that causes everyone here to gasp in awe when republicans make it to office. This country is comprised of mostly red states, but the few blues out there have high populations.

As House, already stated the gas prices are due to the burgeoning economies of China and now India. Their demand for crude has gone up so significantly that it has affected world supplies and prices have gone up. This is turning into the WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA thread.

 

[fritz]

Home prices in rural areas are down, often much more than they are in NY. The lending crunch isn't isolated to NY. Gas prices are one thing, people not being able to borrow money to purchase a home is another. When Jill and Joe America the cop and teacher from Iowa can't buy a home what do you think that does to the economy? Well that's a chicken before the egg situation...what state do you think the economy is in when they can't buy a home. The mean credit score in the US doesn't qualify for a home loan. FHA guidelines for conventional loans are out of the reach of most people. In NY (bad example I know) the FHA guideline for a 1 fam house is around 400k. Anything above 400k could not be borrowed it would have to be cash. There's a reason that the mortgage industry was stated as "surpassing terrorism as this nations biggest problem"

 

[jgiordano]

New York is but a very small segment of this country's population. Most of this country is rural with the national avg. income being 35k a year. New York and the rest of population hubs are the exceptions, not the rule. This is the same thinking that causes everyone here to gasp in awe when republicans make it to office. This country is comprised of mostly red states, but the few blues out there have high populations.

As House, already stated the gas prices are due to the burgeoning economies of China and now India. Their demand for crude has gone up so significantly that it has affected world supplies and prices have gone up. This is turning into the WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA thread.

Actually this is a big misnomer; yes there are many small rural populations that don't compare to new york in size and wealth. But everything is relative, the rest of the country is spending crazy amounts of money, just maybe not in the amounts as New York or California.

Rural States are building bigger houses to the Carolinas, Arizona, Vegas, Georgia, Tennessee. Bigger houses more energy , more expensive resources. How many kids share bedrooms in houses these days?

The biggest mall in the country is not in New York, California or Texas it is in Minnesota. There are casino's throughout the country popping up in very rural areas. Savings rates are at an all time low, this isn't due to any political party it is more of a cultural thing. You could actually blame it on Hollywood and the media more than politics.

I do agree that India and China are a tremendous strain on the price of oil. They are buying cars and goods at double digit rates for the past 5 years. Both have 2 Billion people if 20% have cars that 400 million cars each much more that we will use.

 

[jgiordano]

Higher gas is a good thing,

1) People drive less
2) we seek out alternative forms of energy
3) we loose weight (lower health care costs) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070912093556.htm


If they drop we become super complacent.

 

[LeslieS]

I live with an economist, so every microscopic shift is such a part of my daily live that the big picture seems very far away sometimes

I do know how the current economic climate is impacting me directly. Limited Brands, the owner of Victoria's Secret, Limited, Bath and Body Works, Bigelow's, Henri Bendel, and part of Express, just cut staff across all stores and divisions by 10%. They are planning for one more cut sometime soon.

Many of my friends lost their jobs which they were able to quickly replace this time around. What about the next cut?

Also, I can hardly ask for a rate raise even though I haven't had one in 2 years when they are firing people. This means I have to work more hours and have less time to shop. That is less money being put back into the economy.

Several of my other accounts are talking about tightened budgets as well. No raises for me.

Overall, retail is driven by the holiday season. It will indicate what people are still spending on and how much available credit is still out there on the individual level.

In real estate, a couple people that I know who where getting piggy back mortgages to cover the cost of their down payment, were suddenly delayed and denied.

I think everyone realizes that many of us are living beyond our means and if the economy does slow, it could snow ball at the consumer level very quickly.

 

[jackson6745]

Higher gas is a good thing,

1) People drive less
2) we seek out alternative forms of energy
3) we loose weight (lower health care costs) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070912093556.htm


If they drop we become super complacent.

What about all the businesses and services that are dependent on gas to perform? This will have a snowball effect that will far outweigh your reasoning.

 

[jgiordano]

I
In real estate, a couple people that I know who where getting piggy back mortgages to cover the cost of their down payment, were suddenly delayed and denied.

Sorry to hear that they encountered this situation, but piggyback mortgages for a down payment isn't exactly sound financial planning. Their denial may be stressful now but long term might cause less stress.


The ultimate paradox Unemployed Americans/Possible Recession then we have "Jobs American Won't Do" (thus then need for illegals)


BTW the Manhattan Reefs Magazine is awsome, JHALE you photography skills are amazing!

 

[jgiordano]

What about all the businesses and services that are dependent on gas to perform? This will have a snowball effect that will far outweigh your reasoning.

Eventually oil will run out, or we will be really fighting for it (with China, Russia or India); so we either deal with it now or later. The earth's population and consumption can't continue to grow at the current rate. Eventually the snowball will hit us.



:scratchch It is just a matter of time.

 

[lfsmarineguy]

The biggest mall is in Minnesota because it would have cost significantly more to build it in a well developed population hub. That mall also has hotels and an airport just for itself. We have large malls in the tristate area but the only thing keeping them from being too large is the cost. There is a point of diminishing returns. My point was that New York is not an accurate representation of the entire country. 35k a year doesn't get you much here and while cost of living and incomes are relative to a degree, there are other factors. To say that with all the problems being paraded in the media, it doesn't seem so bad because people here are still buying stuff is an absurd statement. People will always spend money whether they have it or not. The majority of this country isn't the New York doctor, lawyer, stock broker, mortgage broker, etc. (well, maybe the majority is lawyers since 75% of the worlds lawyer population resides in the US).

 

[jgiordano]

The biggest mall is in Minnesota because it would have cost significantly more to build it in a well developed population hub. That mall also has hotels and an airport just for itself. We have large malls in the tristate area but the only thing keeping them from being too large is the cost. There is a point of diminishing returns. My point was that New York is not an accurate representation of the entire country. 35k a year doesn't get you much here and while cost of living and incomes are relative to a degree, there are other factors. To say that with all the problems being paraded in the media, it doesn't seem so bad because people here are still buying stuff is an absurd statement. People will always spend money whether they have it or not. The majority of this country isn't the New York doctor, lawyer, stock broker, mortgage broker, etc. (well, maybe the majority is lawyers since 75% of the worlds lawyer population resides in the US).

I would have to disagree; if you look at the GSP (Gross State Products) New York is not growing nearly as fast as other states. Then there are states well below New Yorks growth.

Is it true that the coasts are wealthier and spend more on luxurious items absolutely. Is it safe to say that the country as a whole is over consuming resources and spending beyond there means; true also.

Am I contributing to over consumption and over spending absolutely. :wink1:

 

[Chiefmcfuz]

I just want a cost of living increase while the cost of living increase will actually cover the cost of living. :lol2:

 

[lfsmarineguy]

New York isn't growing as fast on paper because these rural areas or less populated hubs are drawing more people and have more ways to grow. It's the same as any living thing, the majority of the growth happens when they are younger. The same can be said for large corporations. In their infancy growth may have been in the double digits but now if some of the large corporations can grow 2% a year it's fantastic. Relative to smaller hubs New York isn't growing as fast % wise but we may be crushing them in actual numbers. A town of 5,000 people grows by 500 in 1yr that's 10% over the previous year for New York to pull that same percentage it would have to pull in over 900,000 people. You have to take statistics with a grain of salt.

 

[jgiordano]

My original point was that Americans overspend dramatically, we are not nearly as financially humble as we were 30 years ago.
Do New Yorkers spend more, possibly. Do we make more, yes, along with higher property tax, income tax, city tax, car insurance, tolls etc... So I still argue that the ratio is relevant.

We are in a hobby that is a luxury, if gas puts me over the edge it is time to sacrifice the fish! Or maybe get a betta :scratchch


Just go to someone (not in the hobby) complain about gas then tell them how much you paid for live rock, and see what they say...

 

[LeslieS]

It's more interesting to hear real info than read in a paper such % of people are doing X.

piggyback mortgages for a down payment isn't exactly sound financial planning.

I didn't say it was, but it is an example of how the changing economic climate is impacting people on a personal level.

Also, it's interesting to note that this thread was started in September of 2005.

 

[LeslieS]

The Fed dropped interest rates yesterday.

 

[jhale]

more disturbing to me than the gas prices now are the huge amounts of foreclosures, up 36% this year :frown:
when people can't afford to keep their homes, let alone get a loan for one
that's scarier than gas at 3.40 a gallon.